Econometric Modelling of the World Trade in Groundfish

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Lawrence E. Fernand Van De Wiele. Kelo M. Correia Da Silva. Robert N. Paul Jespers. Edward J. Carl J. Ram Kossowsky. Xavier P. Home Contact us Help Free delivery worldwide. Free delivery worldwide. Bestselling Series. Harry Potter. These papers trace the development of programmes that monitor and advise the industry on controlling costs and cutting back on subsidies. Econometric modelling of the world trade in groundfish by William E Schrank Book 11 editions published in in English and held by WorldCat member libraries worldwide This conference brought together an international group of fisheries economists from academia, business, government, and inter-governmentalagencies, to consider a coordinated project to build an econometric model of the world trade in groundfish.

A number of the conference participants had just spent up to six weeks at Memorial University of Newfoundland working and preparing papers on the project.

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This volume presents the papers that these scholars produced, plus additional papers prepared by other conference participants. In addition, various lectures and discussionswhich were transcribed from tapes made of the proceedings are included. The introductory essay explains the genesis of the conference, describes the approach taken to modelling the groundfish trade, very briefly summarizes the technical papers, and describes future plans. The project is continuing as planned, and a second conference was held in St.

John's in August Introducing fisheries subsidies by William E Schrank Book 8 editions published in in English and held by 94 WorldCat member libraries worldwide Chapter 1 explains why fishery subsidies are of concern and considers the difficulties caused by them. Chapter 3 considers how the international community might impose sufficient discipline to control the subsidies that stimulate overfishing.

The annex is a more technical discussion of the linkage between fishery subsidies and their effects on sustainability and trade. Cost and production in the Newfoundland fish products industry by Noel Roy Book 6 editions published between and in English and held by 39 WorldCat member libraries worldwide "A five-factor Generalized Leontief cost function is used to infer cost and production relationships in the Newfoundland fish products industry over the period "--Abstract, p.

This indicator is then included in an econometric model of seafood imports section 2 , so as to test the impact of import protection on seafood imports. The model is of panel type, and includes a large number of observations. After a short presentation of the usual econometric tests for panel data, the parameter estimates are then discussed.

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The main conclusion is that import protection seems to have little influence on imports, and that this influence may be undermined by other forces. Indeed, more significant elasticities may be found for other variables exchange rates, prices, distance and some specific product groups, like prepared seafood. The last section discusses the various policy implications of the results. In particular, it is argued that import protection is not an effective policy if the objective is to protect domestic producers against imports.

Instead, an exchange rate policy, like the implementation of the euro, can be more appropriate given the greater sensitivity of imports to exchange rates variations. Overall, additional trade liberalization of seafood imports should have no major impact on import flows. This CCT, central in the European trade policy, had been first implemented as early back as February The evolution of trade policy shows the gradual lowering of trade barriers 1.

Two potentially conflicting principles are framing this policy : the principle of Community preference that tends to favour domestic products against imports, and the security of supply for the European market. On the one hand, the enforcement of a Common Fisheries Policy CFP since might pay greater attention to the interest of the industry.

On the other, the CCP has been developed long prior to the CFP and is more driven by the interest of domestic consumers, hence lowering trade barriers. The question becomes naturally : what has been the evolution of trade barriers for fishery products and who has most benefited from the evolution of the CCP in recent years?

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During this period, the four custom territories involved in the integrating process of the customs union had an opposite attitude towards the level of protection and integration through a CCT : Germany and Benelux were pushing towards a lower level of protection as compared to France or Italy. In particular, France was the only member state advocating the implementation of a fisheries policy with a steady trade policy in order to protect its industry.

Finally, the common duties were set at the level of the arithmetic average of the duties applied on 1 January in the four customs territories, except a few sensitive products.

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Several institutional events explain this evolution : the different Rounds of the GATT and the creation of the World Trade Organization in , various enlargements of the European Community in particular Spain and Portugal in , the adoption of the Combined Nomenclature of trade in , trade agreements with Third countries and autonomous concessions.

The CCT now includes the conventional rates of duty under the GATT rules, the autonomous rates of the Community, and the numerous conventions and agreements between the Community and Third countries. This combination forms a complex set of rules, even though almost all tariff duties are now bound under the GATT at a very reduced rate.

For instance, the recent Uruguay Round has led to a substantial tariff reduction of the overall tariff rate exceeding one third, down to an average rate of 3. It thus becomes interesting to look at the level of trade barriers in the recent years. The level of protection was even much higher 2 Chapter 03 fish, crustaceans and molluscs, except prepared , prepared and preserved fish and prepared and preserved shellfish 3 source : Official Journal of the EC, various issues.

However, this simple measure of trade barriers is not really effective since it leaves aside non-tariff barriers NTBs like import quotas and it does not take into consideration the structure of trade. Therefore, specific tariffs and reduced-rate quotas have to be converted to nominal ad valorem equivalents. Conversion methods may be found in Laird and Yeats , who surveyed the existing literature.

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The problem is that these measures are independent of the level of the NTBs. Thus, they do not properly measure tariff equivalents. Alternative measures, sometimes used by the Food and Agriculture Organization FAO, consist in measuring tariff equivalents through the calculation of price elasticities in a partial analysis framework. This also raises major problems, notably due to the choice of the price concerned. It consists of directly converting the observed level of tariffs and NTB into a tariff equivalent.

The conversion procedure can be explained through a simple example : suppose a duty-free import quota of 5. If the actual imports have been 6. This latter calculation gives an indication of the trade barriers really applied to the imported commodities in the countries concerned. We observe from table 1 that the unweighted mean is slightly greater than the weighted mean. This simply indicates that products which account for a large share of imports bear smaller rates than the others. One explanation may be that a high rate of duty is deterrent to seafood imports.

The exception of frozen fish for which unweighted rates are smaller may be due to the fact that these products are mainly imported from countries with which the EU has no preferential agreement E.

USA or Canada. Consequently, the European markets do need these imports, for instance to supply the processing sector, whatever the tariff levels. Looking at the evolution of trade barriers within the period gives some insight to the forces at stake for the decision-making process of the European trade policy figure 1. This is likely to be explained by changes of import quotas, particularly autonomous concessions.

Thus, although import protection is higher for prepared than for non prepared products, the gap between these two product categories has slightly decreased in recent years.

A quantitative assessment of the impact of the EU trade policy on imports. Most of the economic literature on seafood imports is made up with econometric studies in which imports are explained by several variables, such as the lagged import quantity, the price of the imported product, the price of substitutes, and the disposable income Tsoa et al. In addition to these variables, some other studies include dummy variables, to account for seasonal patterns, structural changes in demand, etc A common feature of all these studies is that they often concern a specific product or import flow between a particular pair of countries.

Moreover, they do not include a variable accounting for import protection or even the distance between countries. However, one study Montfort deals with the specific impact of tariff and non tariff barriers on seafood imports in the EEC from Norway. The methodology used is based on non quantitative methods, such as inquiries, analysis of tariff policies, etc It concludes that NTBs have little effects, except for fresh fish. Tariffs have more significant effects, but adverse effects widely vary from a product group to another.

Although interesting, this study only provides qualitative information, and is limited to Norway. The model presented below combines quantitative econometric methods, the calculation of tariff and NTBs, and an analysis of the EU import flows from numerous trading partners.

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The present import model includes the EU as the country of reference, and 48 partner countries4. The reference period is 7 years. Moreover, the seafood products of the Eurostat Combined Nomenclature chapter 03 and are included. Therefore, the panel data set covers three dimensions : partner countries, years and products, including about , observations. The model is a variant of a gravity equation, which particularly fits to the explanation of bilateral trade flows. All other countries are excluded. Consequently, it may explain both inter and intra industry trade, in line with the new development in international economics.

For the remaining intra-industry trade, specialization through scale economies are also tackled by the gravity equation Evenett and Keller As compared to the other studies above mentioned, this model introduces several original characteristics : - it includes several bilateral variables geographic distance, exchange rates, trade barriers.

Alternative estimations of the model including all currencies involved in bilateral trade, have not provided significant results. The Belsley, Kuh and Welsch test provides high condition numbers around , which indicate the presence of multicollinearity biases. After a careful analysis of the variance inflation factors, we checked the stability of the parameter estimates through a step by step regression procedure, but also through the temporary removal of the collinear variables and the reestimation of the remaining coefficients.

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The observed relative stability of parameters tends to demonstrate that the estimates are not significantly affected by multicollinearity biases. The Lagrange Multiplier LM test indicates that parameters are heterogenous6. Consequently, the model has been tested through Feasable Generalized Least Squares7.

Short-run and long-run elasticities of the variables are presented in table 2 for the main product categories and levels of processing8.

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This is justified by the fact that only 7 years are covered by the dataset, whereas the number of products and countries is more important.